Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?
7
Ṁ100Ṁ842028
39%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context. The model MUST be available to the public, either through non whitelisted API access or open weights. Just announcements wouldn't count.
By selecting for 'frontier' i intend to exclude very small, experimental models. I will judge this subjectively, therefore i will not trade on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
The creator has blocked themselves from betting in this market.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026
81% chance
Will frontier AI effective training compute increase by a factor 10 billion between 2025 and 2035?
70% chance
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
60% chance
Before 2028, will there be enough inference capacity to generate 30T frontier model tokens per day?
99% chance
CTO.new: When do free frontier-model tokens end?
1/28/27
What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?
71% chance
Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026?
51% chance
What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2028?
Will any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?
55% chance