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MANIFOLD
What will OpenAI do before IPO that is easier as a private company? [Add answers]
4
Ṁ125Ṁ138
2028
28%
Give substantial equity to the US government
28%
Call for a pause or slowdown of frontier model development
17%
Merge with another company that is worth at least 100B
10%
Give all their employees a noogie

Options will resolve YES as they happen or NO if they are not reported by the time OpenAI is trading as a public company. Things that happened before IPO but were not reported by trusted media sources (WSJ, FT, Reuters, NYT, The Information, etc.) or announced officially will not count. Market resolves N/A if no IPO by the end of 2028.

OpenAI says they haven't decided when to go public yet, since there are things they want to do "that are likely easier as a private company". I will judge what things are easier as a private company from my own subjective view and understanding, but if a resolution is controversial i might defer to a frontier LLM.
I will N/A added options that i consider to not be relevant to the private/public company question ("GPT-6 releases", "Sam Altman dies", "Trump says the words Obama or Obamacare")

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