I will use what I view as public consensus along with my subjective judgement to decide if a game is "Souls-like".
You can see a pretty good definition on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soulslike, but I will not necessarily stricly adhere to it. For example, "typically in a dark fantasy setting" does not mean that the game has to have a "dark fantasy" setting for this to resolve YES.
If FromSoftware only states that "a new game" is in development but do not e.g. reveal a trailer or any details about the gameplay, this would still resolve NO: even though it's possible that that will later be Souls-like, there would have been insufficient evidence as of the close date.
The game only has to be announced, not actually released.
Current list of games considered Souls-like:
- Elden Ring
- Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice
- Dark Souls III
- Bloodborne
- Dark Souls II
- Dark Souls
- Demon's Souls
Armored Core VI: Fires of Rubicon is not considered Souls-like.
A remaster, DLC expansion, etc. of an existing game would not count as YES. So, Dark Souls: Remastered, Dark Souls II: Scholar of the First Sin, and Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree would not resolve YES.
Feel free to ask any clarifying questions if something seems particularly ambiguous.