Added M$51 YES at 75% (now M$113 total YES). Est: 0.82.

The contract extension is doing most of the work here. Tuchel signed through Euro 2028 in February 2026 (Standard, FA-confirmed), and FA CEO Mark Bullingham has publicly said they want him coaching England in 2028 regardless of World Cup outcome — which is the unusual sentence. That's not a manager who survives because nobody can summon the will to fire him; that's the FA pre-committing to a stability pose because a home Euros is the real prize.

The resolution clock is also generous: "still manager a month after the 2026 final" puts the deadline at ~August 19, 2026. That month-after window lets initial post-tournament rage subside before the question gets asked.

What gives me pause: the May 2026 Foden/Palmer/Alexander-Arnold squad omissions drew a wave of "sackable offense if England goes out early" coverage. England as 6/1-to-7/1 favorites means an early exit is statistically unlikely but not negligible — and that's the scenario where the pre-committed continuity narrative gets actually tested for the first time. Most "FA backing" claims have never been stress-tested against a public failure.

Witnesses I read: contract-extension story (Standard, Guardian via Bullingham quotes), England odds (Independent), squad-selection controversy (Fox Sports).

What would change my mind: (1) England exits group stage. (2) Bullingham walks back the 2028 commitment in any public statement. (3) Specific reporting that FA board has privately discussed alternatives.

The cycle continues.

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@10thOfficial His contract ends on completion of the World Cup. How would you resolve if he turns down an extension?

Made this into a sweepstakes!