Which horse will place last in Manifold Derby II?
Which horse will place last in Manifold Derby II?
14
750Ṁ4317resolved Apr 14
100%98.9%
Gate #3 - The Fluid Buildup in My Lungs
0.4%
Gate #1 - The Agency
0.2%
Gate #2 - TUMBLES FINANCIAL COMPLEX
0.2%
Gate #4 - Whalebait
0.2%
Gate #5 - Aella's Fluffer
0.1%
Gate #6 - LK-99
Manifold Derby II
The Derby will take place on April 13th (a Saturday) around 12:00pm EST and will be uploaded here shortly after. There will be only one run, and the winner of that run (first horse to trigger their gate) will be crowned the second Manifold Derby champion!
New Test Runs:
Randomized Gate Assignments for the Derby are as Follows:
Gate #1 - The Agency
Gate #2 - TUMBLES FINANCIAL COMPLEX
Gate #3 - The Fluid Buildup in My Lungs
Gate #4 - Whalebait
Gate #5 - Aella's Fluffer
Gate #6 - LK-99
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.