Which horse will win Manifold Derby II?
resolved Apr 13
Gate #5 - Aella's Fluffer
Gate #1 - The Agency
Gate #3 - The Fluid Buildup in My Lungs
Gate #4 - Whalebait
Gate #6 - LK-99

Manifold Derby II

The Derby will take place on April 13th (a Saturday) afternoon (potentially streamed???) and will be uploaded here shortly after. There will be only one run, and the winner of that run (first horse to trigger their gate) will be crowned the second Manifold Derby champion!

Our Returning Racers

Accepting sponsorship ideas for individual horses!!! Names are also subject to change if anybody has a killer idea. "Out of Mana" has been renamed "The Fluid Buildup in My Lung" as a punishment for finishing last and due to the fluid buildup in my lungs that delayed and relocated Manifold Derby I.


  • Reigning Champion from Manifold Derby I

  • Somehow 500% collateralized

  • JPMorgan Chase likely insolvent if horse loses


  • Finished 5th in Manifold Derby I

  • Willing to sell out to the highest bidder

  • [Let's Play] Horse Racing

The Agency:

  • Finished 4th in Manifold Derby I

  • Willing to wear your logo for enough mana (may not actually wear your logo)

  • Trains with Whalebait


  • Finished 2nd in Manifold Derby I

  • Once promising horse that gained prominence last year, but has since floundered

  • Unfortunately infertile (unable to replicate)

The Fluid Buildup In My Lungs:

  • Replaces last played "Out of Mana" that finished Last in Manifold Derby I

  • Caused significant delays in Manifold Derby I by trying to kill me

  • Successfully negotiated participation in Manifold Derby II in exchange for my life

Aella's Fluffer:

  • Passed auto filter, Passed manual filter, Contacted, Interviewed, Got invited, Got ticket, Did STI (Speed Track Invitational) test, Showed Up, Came (3rd in Manifold Derby I)

  • Helped other horses get ready for the Derby

  • Experts project a 1st-5th finish

The Track:

Length: Slightly over 1.25 Miles

Location: My Computer Desk (For Real This Time)

Forecast Conditions: Clear Skies, Clear Lungs

New Test Runs:

Test Run #1

Test Run #2

Test Run #3

Randomized Gate Assignments for the Derby are as Follows:

Gate #1 - The Agency


Gate #3 - The Fluid Buildup in My Lungs

Gate #4 - Whalebait

Gate #5 - Aella's Fluffer

Gate #6 - LK-99

Loser Punishment:

The horse that finishes last will be subject to a loser punishment as influenced by this market:


Official punishment will be announced before the race!

Manifold Derby II Markets:





Previous Derbies:


Derivative Markets are encouraged and will be added here!!!

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:
sold Ṁ1 Gate #6 - LK-99 YES

Forgot to cancel my limit orders 😭

@benshindel Still had 4th most profit? lol


Derby starts at around 35:30. My apologies for not making the racing screen big, I totally forgot ha!

The Fluid Build up in My Lungs has been branded and will compete in the Mushroom league, which saw our unnamed Sparkle White horse be promoted. Thanks for betting, and join us next month!

Oh shoot, I never made the screen big my bad

sold Ṁ4 Gate #3 - The Fluid ... YES

@StopPunting no prob man loved the event

@houstonEuler Such a blunder, I sold the winner once it fell behind

bought Ṁ10 Gate #5 - Aella's Fl... YES

@StopPunting AI music?


Closing in on 12 hours to bet before the 1PM EST Derby stream tomorrow!

Also happy to announce the punishment for the loser will receive a Branding + be demoted into the minor league horse race (also to be introduced on stream).


Tentative Stream Itinerary

1:00PM - Stream Starts, Derby Songs and Horse Introductions

1:10PM - Exclusive, stream only, gate release practice run

1:20PM - Minor League and 2nd Track Introduction and Race

1:30PM - Official Running of Manifold Derby II

1:40PM - Live Last Place Punishment

@StopPunting Market stays open during the race or no?

@Predictor Yes I'll keep it open through the stream end

@StopPunting Hell yeah brother

If whalebait wins I will through a tantrum

Gate #1 - The Agency

Fun fact of the day, this horse was recently arrested for the DUI so maybe you should considering the morale repercussions!

@StopPunting If you're doing it live on Youtube make sure you request the ability to go live now if you haven't done it already. It takes them a day or so to give you permission.

@Predictor Thanks, just requested! After that's setup I'll put the link in for Manifold TV

Let's goooo.

Today's Featured Horse

There's a discrepancy between the randomized gate assignments in the description and the options to bet on. Which assignments will be used?

@EstMtz Thanks for catching that! The gate assignments at the bottom are correct and have been updated. @traders sorry for that!


Today's Featured Horse