MANIFOLD
Which men's tennis players will reach the Wimbledon semi-final?
74
Ṁ1.9kṀ48k
resolved Jul 9
Resolved
YES
🇮🇹 Jannik Sinner (1)
Resolved
YES
🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz (2)
Resolved
YES
🇺🇸 Taylor Fritz (5)
Resolved
YES
🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (6)
Resolved
NO
Alexander Zverev
Resolved
NO
🇬🇧 Jack Draper (4)
Resolved
NO
Lorenzo Musetti
Resolved
NO
🇺🇸 Tommy Paul (13)
Resolved
NO
Holger Rune
Resolved
NO
🇺🇸 Ben Shelton (10)
Resolved
NO
Daniil Medvedev
Resolved
NO
🇦🇺 Alex de Minaur (11)
Resolved
NO
🇺🇸 Frances Tiafoe (12)
Resolved
NO
🇷🇺 Andrey Rublev (14)
Resolved
NO
Casper Ruud
Resolved
NO
Alexander Bublik
Resolved
NO
🇷🇺 Karen Khachanov (17)
Resolved
NO
🇬🇧 Cameron Norrie
Resolved
NO
🇮🇹 Flavio Cobolli (22)

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each men's tennis player who reaches at least the semi-final stage (Top 4) of the 2025 Wimbledon Championships. Official results will be verified through the Wimbledon website and reputable sports news outlets.

Background

The 2025 Wimbledon Championships are scheduled from June 30 to July 13 at the All England Club in London. The men's singles draw includes top-seeded players such as Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and Alexander Zverev. Notably, Alcaraz, the defending champion, has been placed in the opposite half of the draw from Sinner and Novak Djokovic, potentially avoiding them until the final. (reuters.com)

Considerations

  • Player Form and Injuries: Recent performances and any injuries can significantly impact a player's progress in the tournament. For instance, Alcaraz enters Wimbledon on an 18-match winning streak, having secured titles at Rome, Roland-Garros, and Queen’s Club. (si.com)

  • Draw Analysis: The path to the semi-finals varies in difficulty. Alcaraz's draw is considered favorable, potentially facing Felix Auger-Aliassime in the third round and Andrey Rublev or Stefanos Tsitsipas in the fourth. (si.com)

  • Historical Performance: Players like Novak Djokovic, a seven-time Wimbledon champion, have a history of strong performances on grass courts, which may influence their likelihood of reaching the semi-finals. (sportskeeda.com)

Traders should consider these factors when making predictions.

Market context
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@traders This is one of the 3 markets that I am putting up for the 2025 US Open bets:

The other two markets I shall be creating will be a "Which men's tennis players will reach the US Open semi-final?" and "Which women's tennis players will reach the US Open semi-final?", which will be posted once the seeds for those are determined (waiting for Wimbledon to conclude).

@traders Second US Open market up in the same format:

@traders Thanks for trading on this market! The semifinalists of 2025 Wimbledon Men's Singles are:

🇮🇹 Jannik Sinner (1)

🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz (2)

🇺🇸 Taylor Fritz (5)

🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (6)

Keep an eye out for another market similar to this, which will be up in about a month for the upcoming US Open (starts on August 29th). The market will be created once the seeds for that tournament are decided.

@traders All remaining Quarterfinalists - Karen Khachanov, Cameron Norrie, and Flavio Cobolli have all been added to this market.

opened a Ṁ50 NO at 55% order

fat finger comment

@105du I accidentally hit the “send” button on an empty comment and now I can’t delete the comment so I just updated it 🤦‍♂️

@benmanns 🤡 lol

@traders

I added Bublik to this market, as he did quite well at Roland-Garros, reaching the QF round. Bublik also won the Halle Open right before Wimbledon, beating Sinner and Medvedev in that tournament.

Here is the men's draw: https://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/draws/gentlemens-singles/1/1

Note - notable players in each draw

Top Draw: Djokovic, Sinner, Shelton, Paul, Draper, Musetti, de Minaur, and Bublik ☠

Bottom Draw: Alcaraz, Zverev, and Fritz

The bottom draw is less competitive than the top draw, also since Rune and Medvedev have been eliminated already, essentially guaranteeing 2 of the 3 players Alcaraz/Zverev/Fritz to make SF round in my opinion. Take this into consideration.

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