Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each men's tennis player who reaches the semifinals (Top 4) of the 2025 US Open in the Men's Singles event. Official results will be verified through the US Open's official website and reputable sports news outlets.
Background
The 2025 US Open is scheduled from August 24 to September 7, marking the first time the tournament will span 15 days, starting on a Sunday. This expansion allows the first round to be played over three days, potentially affecting player scheduling and recovery times. (reuters.com)
As of July 2025, the ATP rankings are as follows:
Jannik Sinner (Italy) – 12,030 points
Carlos Alcaraz (Spain) – 8,600 points
Alexander Zverev (Germany)
Taylor Fritz (United States)
Jack Draper (Great Britain)
Novak Djokovic (Serbia)
Lorenzo Musetti (Italy)
Holger Rune (Denmark)
Ben Shelton (United States)
Andrey Rublev (Russia)
(as.com)
Notably, Jannik Sinner recently secured his position as world No. 1 after winning Wimbledon 2025 against Carlos Alcaraz. (as.com)
Considerations
The expanded 15-day format of the 2025 US Open may influence player performance due to altered scheduling and potential changes in recovery periods. Additionally, the proximity of the US Open to other major tournaments, such as the Masters 1000 events in Toronto and Cincinnati, could impact player participation and form leading into the Grand Slam. (as.com)
Only the top seeds have been added, considering that only 4 players will make the semifinals. If anyone would like to request more players to be added, please do so by pinging me in the comments.
Update 2025-08-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Added an Other option covering all players seeded after 20 (seeds 21+) and all qualifying players.
If any player in Other reaches the semifinals, the Other option resolves to 100%, regardless of whether 1–4 such players do.
This is a manually added Other for a Sets market; the default auto-Other behavior does not apply.
Update 2025-08-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Use Entry Ranking (not tournament Seed) from https://www.dartsrankings.com/tennis/us-open to determine who falls under Other.
Any player with Entry Ranking 21+ counts as Other, even if seeded ≤20 (e.g., Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Seed 18, Entry Ranking 26).
Qualifiers remain included in Other.
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Inspired by this excellent market, I have a similar one up for the women's semis. Thank you, @105du!
@polymathematic Nice! I was going to do this market, but considering WTA isn't as popular as ATP, I thought the liquidity investment wouldn't be worth it, especially since I'm kinda poor in mana
@traders The ATP rankings have shifted significantly after the Citi Open and Toronto/Cincinnati Open Master 1000 Tournaments recently, with many players such as Khachanov going up multiple ranks, others like Rublev and Cobolli falling multiple spots.
The updated seeds are not the same as the seeds in this market, which were based on the Wimbledon results. Based on this website: https://www.dartsrankings.com/tennis/us-open, we will be sticking with the "Entry Ranking", and not the "Seed". For example, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the 18th seed, but his Entry Ranking is 26th, so he would fall under the "Other" category.
@traders I have just added an Other option that includes all players seeded after 20 (Starting with the 21st seed Nick Kyrgios who replaces Grigor Dimitrov, as well as Qualifying players).The "Other" option that usually includes all future added options doesn't work in Manifold Sets, only Manifold multiple choice, this is just a manually added Other.
If one or more players that fall into the "Other" category make the semifinals, the Other option will resolve to 100% regardless if 1, 2, 3, or 4 "Other" players make the semifinals.