Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the United States threatens to attack Canada before January 1st 2027.

A qualifying threat must involve the threatened use of the U.S. military or other U.S. armed force against Canada, Canadian territory, Canadian government forces, or Canadian-controlled infrastructure. This includes, but is not limited to, threats of invasion, military strikes, bombardment, armed seizure of territory, or another direct use of military force.

Threats made by the President of the United States, the Vice President, Cabinet members, or other senior U.S. government officials may qualify. Statements do not need to use the exact words "attack Canada" if their meaning clearly communicates that U.S. military force against Canada is a possible or intended consequence.

This market explicitly includes threats to use military force against Canada in order to resolve, influence, or obtain concessions in a trade or economic dispute. For example, a credible statement that the United States may use military force against Canada unless Canada agrees to particular tariffs, trade terms, resource access, economic concessions, or other demands would qualify.

The threat may be conditional. Statements such as "if Canada does X, we will use military force" can qualify provided the military meaning is sufficiently clear and the statement is attributable to the U.S. government or a sufficiently senior U.S. official.

Only threats that were made after the creation time of this market are taken into consideration for the resolution of this question.

Resolution should be based on official statements, recordings or transcripts, or credible reporting from reputable news organizations. Unverified rumors, anonymous social-media claims, or statements whose authenticity is seriously disputed are insufficient on their own.

Resolves NO if no qualifying threat is made before January 1st 2027.