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MANIFOLD
Which company's LLM will be #1 on LMSYS at the end of October?
10
Ṁ100Ṁ799
resolved Nov 2
100%99.0%
OpenAI
0.2%
Google / Google Deepmind
0.3%
Anthropic
0.2%
xAI
0.3%
Other

The title is self-explanatory, but to be more specific: which company's LLM or chatbot will be ranked #1 on LMSYS's Arena leaderboard by the end of October? Also, the question will close on 11/01/2024.

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What happens in case of a statistical tie, where multiple models show as Rank 1?

@yetforever manifold allows you to select one or many options for a resolution. in that scenario, i would choose the models that tied for first place.

@zzz_11 This market is configured to have one outcome only. So I don’t think it would let you choose more than one answer.

sold Ṁ0 YES

@yetforever oh, i must have configured it incorrectly. in that case, i’d have to resolve it to N/A, but i doubt that will happen. it seems unlikely.