Will our Manifund Project (Whitebox Research) get at least 50% of its funding goal?
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resolved Oct 2
Resolved
NO

Link to project here: https://manifund.org/projects/whitebox-research-training-exclusively-for-mechanistic-interpretability

I'll resolve the project under the following conditions (conjuctive):

a) The project's funding period ends or we reach our funding goal.

b) Manifund approves the transfer.

c) The money appears in a form that is accessible to us (e.g., in one of our bank/Wise accounts, as a briefcase full of cash).

Getting funded by other sources not through Manifund will also count towards the goal if it fulfills (a) and (c) by the end of the period. Funding commitments or promissory notes won't count.

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predicted YES

FWIW, while we did not reach our funding goal during the period, we DID eventually get funded in full. 🙂

Sorry just to be clear, is this whether you get 50% funding from Manifund only or 50% funding in general?

predicted YES

@gaurav 50% of our Manifund funding goal, from any source.

@zrkrlc Nice thanks!

predicted YES

@gaurav BTW thanks for the initial comment 🙂 we had a lengthy discussion about it and it made a bunch of things much clearer.

@zrkrlc Nice I’m glad congrats on the funding from Renan! This is making me lean towards leaving more comments on manifund projects when relevant!

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Hey @zrkrlc, love to see a question about a Manifund project! I'm estimating the chance of you getting to your goal of ~$36k as less than 50% at the moment -- I don't currently know that any of our regrantors outside of Renan have expressed interest.

That said, it's possible that 1) an existing regrantor decides to pitch in, 2) Manifund successfully fundraises and re-ups Renan's budget, or 3) an external person likes your project and decides to fund it themselves through Manifund. Best of luck!

predicted YES

@Austin Thanks for the valuable info! We don't expect Manifund to be our primary source of funding, actually, but we've slightly updated our odds of success there because of your comment.

@Austin When do you expect to next fundraise (if this is information you can share, no pressure if not)? I think that’d be help have a better intuition on whether this would get above 50% funded. Also I’d expect Renan to hedge his bets and let other funders chip in now.

predicted NO

@gaurav we don't have any specific expectations on when we'll succeed but we've eg put out an application to OpenPhil already. Fundraising can be a slow process, most individual donors donate in the winter