Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the end of 2025, any Bitcoin (BTC) is transferred from a wallet address publicly attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto. Verification will be based on credible blockchain analysis reports or announcements from recognized cryptocurrency monitoring services. If no such transfer is confirmed by December 31, 2025, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is believed to hold between 600,000 and 1.1 million BTC across numerous addresses. These holdings have remained dormant since Nakamoto's disappearance in 2010. The most notable of these is the genesis address, "1A1zP1eP5QGefi2DMPTfTL5SLmv7DivfNa," which received the first-ever Bitcoin block reward. Over the years, this address has received additional BTC from various users, but none of these transactions originated from Nakamoto himself. (plisio.net)

Considerations

Any movement of BTC from wallets associated with Satoshi Nakamoto would be unprecedented and could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market. Given the high value of these holdings, such a transfer would likely attract substantial media attention and prompt extensive analysis from blockchain experts. Traders should monitor reputable cryptocurrency news outlets and blockchain analysis platforms for any developments related to this topic.