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Equivalent market with 6k threshold here:

https://manifold.markets/PanosFilianos/will-the-roomtemperature-supercondu-08e275a6bd4d

Will the room-temperature superconductor market get more than 6000 unique traders?

21% chance. Specifically this one: https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre [link preview]

Resolved to Yes as traders reached 5K+ in less than a week (lol)

I accidentally made the exact same market minutes later, use it for arbitrage

(EDIT: It's not the same thing, I missed the fact that this market says by the end of the month. Which means that my market should have a slightly higher probability).

@JosephNoonan These markets are not totally identical, though they are very close: it's unlikely that LK-99 crosses the 5'000 traders mark after August ends.