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Will foreign airlines resume commercial passenger flights to Tel Aviv (TLV) by March 15, 2026?
8
Ṁ100Ṁ421
Mar 15
83%
chance

Will normal international civil aviation at Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) resume in the two weeks following the severe airspace restrictions initiated on February 28, 2026.

Resolves YES if the following conditions are met before 11:59 PM Israel Standard Time (IST) on March 15, 2026:

The Israel Airports Authority (IAA) or Ministry of Transport officially announces the lifting of airspace closures for civil aviation.

At least three (3) scheduled, international, commercial passenger flights successfully land at TLV within a single 24-hour period.

The three flights must be operated by non-Israeli airlines using their own aircraft (e.g., Lufthansa, Wizz Air, Delta, FlyDubai).

Resolves NO if the deadline passes without these conditions being met, or if the only commercial flights operating are flown by Israeli carriers (El Al, Israir, Arkia).

Exclusions (do NOT count toward a YES):

Codeshare flights sold by foreign airlines but physically operated by Israeli carriers.

Repatriation, military, cargo-only, or emergency evacuation flights.

Ghost flights or ferry flights moving empty aircraft.

Flights diverted to Ramon Airport (ETM) or any other regional airport.

Resolution will be based on official IAA press releases or NOTAMs, combined with verified landing data from FlightRadar24 or FlightAware.

https://www.iaa.gov.il/en/airports/ben-gurion/notifications-and-updates/

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