Will human civilization send a space probe to the Alpha Centauri system before 2100?
2
1kṀ20
2100
59%
chance

Background

  • Target System:
    Alpha Centauri is the nearest star system to our own, located approximately 4.37 light years away. Any object making a meaningful approach to this system is considered to have “reached” it under this resolution.

  • Scope:
    This resolution covers any device—be it a traditional space probe, an experimental interstellar craft, or any other object designed for interstellar travel—that is intended to approach Alpha Centauri. This includes missions directed by human operators as well as those controlled or initiated by Earth-originated artificial intelligence (whether cooperative or non-cooperative).

Resolution Criteria

  1. Arrival Proximity:

    • The object must, at any point along its trajectory, come within 1 light year of at least one principal star in the Alpha Centauri system (i.e., Alpha Centauri A, Alpha Centauri B, or Proxima Centauri).

    • This closest-approach distance must be confirmed by data from at least two independent, credible astronomical institutions or space agencies.

  2. Origin:

    • The probe or object must be the product of Earth-based endeavors. This includes initiatives led by governments, private organizations, or any artificial intelligence (regardless of whether it is friendly or rogue) that originated on Earth.

  3. Verification:

    • Official, independently sourced trajectory measurements and calculations are required to verify that the object meets the arrival proximity criterion.

  4. Timeline:

    • If January 1, 2100 passes without any such object meeting the above criteria, the proposition resolves as NEGATIVE.

Fine Print

  • Measurement Standards:
    “Reaching” the system is defined solely by the object’s trajectory (i.e., coming within 1 light year of a principal star). There is no requirement for the object to slow down, enter orbit, or transmit data back to Earth.

  • Exclusion:

    Any object not verifiably linked to Earth-based technology or Earth-originating AI is excluded.

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