How does humanity establish its first permanent colony within the Alpha Centauri system?
How does humanity establish its first permanent colony within the Alpha Centauri system?
4
265Ṁ82Jan 1
30%
Generation Ships
7%
Frozen embryo probes
10%
Ships equipped with Nuclear Pulse Propulsion engines
10%
Von Neumann constructors that 3D print the human genome on site.
42%Other
Let us assume that humanity, or their "transhuman" descendants, manage to reach the Apha Centauri and establish a permanent extrasolar colony. How did they accomplish this?
I've listed some possible ways in which it might happen. You can add your own suggestions to the list as well. There will be no restrictions on adding "exotic" technologies to the mix, but do make sure that they can be derived/extrapolated from currently known physics.
Will resolve to the option listed as the most widely agreed upon method at the end of 2024.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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