Clarification:
If all diseases and aging are cured in 2028, then the correct answer is 2030.
If you regard such a goal is unachievable then the correct answer is never.
If the date is January 1, 2100 and all diseases and aging has not been cured then the correct answer is Never.
Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves as YES if CDC WONDER database shows both of the following for the United States before the correct resolved date:
Total annual mortality rate drops to 0.05% or below.
This pattern holds across ALL age groups: between age 30 and age 84.
Fine Print:
Annual mortality rate drop to 0.05% or below must be sustained for 12 consecutive months.
Age group buckets in CDC WONDER: 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84
Background:
Current US mortality rates (CDC National Vital Statistics, 2022):
Overall population: ~0.9% annually (900 per 100,000)
Ranges from 0.1% (age 30-34) to over 4% (age 80+)
Accidental deaths account for ~0.04% annually (40 per 100,000)
If all diseases and aging were cured, mortality would drop to accident-only rates (0.04%), representing a 95%+ reduction from current levels.
1,000
3.00