Resolves YES if Relativity Space successfully launches a rocket into Low Earth Orbit, and secures at least $3 billion in new orders before 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.

Sources for the successful rocket launch and the value of new orders can come from official statements by Relativity Space, reports by reputable news outlets, or other reliable sources, including popular rocketry commentators like Scott Manley.

$3 billion is over double the value of a contract the company signed in 2022 and is used as a proxy for major business success.

Context: All-in podcast, E110, “2023 Bestie Predictions!”

Chamath Palihapitiya: “[Biggest business winner of 2023.] I'm going to pick something out of my portfolio. (…) Relativity, which is now the second most highly valued space business, is about to do a launch in the third week of January. (…) It has a launch in three weeks at Cape Canaveral, I think. And we have a like a 10 billion dollar order book that gets unlocked. (…) If the rocket does not blow up, there's a 10 billion dollar order book. And this company is now on a trajectory to be as valued as SpaceX. If it doesn't, it goes to zero.