Resolves YES if Google Search's market share drops by more than 10 percentage points between January 2023 and January 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.

The preferred source to verify market share is Statcounter Global Stats (https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share); an alternative source may be used if there’s a good common-sense reason.

Context: All-in podcast, E110, “2023 Bestie Predictions!”

Chamath Palihapitiya: I think that the biggest potential business loser this year is Google Search, as measured by your profitability and engagement. (…) There are five or six other organizations that are capable of crawling the entire web in terms of cost, in terms of compute, in terms of the quality of the Transformers and the quality of the AI. (…) I find it is hard to predict who will win because I think that with enough time and money, Oracle, Microsoft, Google, the Chinese internet companies can all compete, Facebook. (…) Well, so I think that Google could lose 10 or 15% of usage to all these other sites.