Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on which country initiates the first military strike against Iran, conditional on an attack occurring. Israel initiated the first strike in the June 2025 conflict by bombing military and nuclear facilities in Iran in a surprise attack, establishing a precedent. If an attack on Iran occurs, the market resolves to whichever country (Israel or America) conducts the first offensive military action. Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) documenting the timing and attribution of initial strikes. If no attack occurs by a specified deadline, the market resolves N/A.

Background

Israel and the United States engaged in a 12-day conflict with Iran from June 13-24, 2025, initiated when Israel bombed military and nuclear facilities in Iran. The United States subsequently bombed three Iranian nuclear sites on June 22. In January 2026, the Israeli Security Cabinet authorized additional strikes on Iran following Netanyahu/Trump discussions. Trump has stated that if Iran begins to re-establish its nuclear programs, "we're going to have to knock them down". Iran's Defense Council warned that the country could respond before an attack if it detected clear signs of a threat, raising the possibility of preemptive action.

Considerations

It remains unclear how serious Iran is about launching a strike, particularly after seeing its air defenses destroyed during the 12-day war in June with Israel. The risk of regional destabilization constitutes one of the greatest deterrents to US military action. Additionally, if the US and Israel refrain from striking, it cannot be ruled out that Iran's Revolutionary Guard itself may initiate hostilities, which would make this market's precondition ambiguous regarding who "attacked" Iran first.