Resolves with confirmation of Israeli armed forces on the ground. The forces have to be openly Israeli, so spies infiltrating Gaza don't count.
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I don't have time to confirm whether this resolves YES right now, but in any case this is a follow-up question:
@MarcusAbramovitch Do you think the conditions have not been met yet? Or do you mean in principle that Yoav should wait to resolve until he has more free time?
Beyond the political tug-of-war between NATO and Hamas, which has been going on for a long time, I would like to focus on why I'm making this bet.
It all began with the 'defeat' of the Mossad, seen as the most impenetrable intelligence agency in the world, mostly relying on digitalization and tracking with sophisticated modern means. It lost what classic espionage involves, which is the presence of infiltrated agents among the enemy. In fact, Hamas, aware of the sophisticated 3.0 espionage, communicated true top-secret information among themselves as Julius Caesar preferred: on paper slips. Therefore, the Mossad had no prior information about Hamas' infiltration into its territory for this reason. (rainews, 2023)
What will be the reaction? Certainly, as history teaches us, the state of Israel is one of the most well-equipped in the world, to the extent that it won a war in just six days between June 5 and June 10, 1967. This war erupted due to tensions caused by Yasser Arafat (leader of the Fatah movement), who had organized Palestinian armed offensives in Jordan and Syria, neighboring Israel. Following an escalation of events, Israel launched an attack on June 5, 1967, which led to the occupation of certain territories such as the West Bank and parts of the Gaza Strip. (pages.di.unipi.it, unknown)
Winning a war in just six days against multiple surrounding enemies, while NATO tries to mediate with Egypt to prevent the war, certainly requires significant resources.
Considering what history teaches us, the 'lost' reputation of the Mossad, and the obligation to eliminate a specific target that always seems elusive, in addition to what I mentioned earlier, will compel Israel to conduct a 'surgical' war to avoid too much innocent bloodshed. There will not be a shortage of bombings, especially after alerting the United Nations to evacuate the areas north of the Gaza Strip within 24 hours, where there are approximately one million people (out of a total population of about 2.3 million). The war is also spreading to the West Bank and Lebanon. (wired.it, 2023, October 14)
@Domer yep, this should really just be resolved YES. I mean all the work has been done in the comments. There is confirmation from the LITERAL IDF... I even provided a reconstruction of what probably happened.
https://www.nationthailand.com/world/middle-east-africa/40031910
The offensive hasn’t started yet.
@ben A major offensive hasn't happened yet, and Israel isn't attempting to hold territory, but there have been isolated raids. That's enough for this market.
@xyz the isolated raids happening, or that they're enough for this market?
Here's the source for isolated raids happening:
https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1712861040315134337?s=20
@DanMan314 These are not ground offensives. Haven’t seen any proof that troops were openly Israeli whilst on the ground which is a condition of the market. They appear to have been undercover. “Spies infiltrating Gaza don't count”.
@ben spy = someone who secretly collects and reports information on the activities, movements, and plans of an enemy. The description of this market implies they must be covert/infiltrators to count as spies.
A large force of the 7th Armoured Brigade (most likely a Battalion since it was commanded by a Lt. Col.) with armored vehicles moving in to the Gaza Strip for a search&rescue mission and/or the recovery of bodies (+to do some coinciding search &destroy) are not spies. This was an Israeli military operation, where Israeli forces entered Gaza, and had boots + vehicles on the ground, so this should resolve YES.
Also who in their right mind would announce such an operation before/while it was taking place? Ofc this is going to be reported after the fact.
@ben wait, are we seriously considering that armored vehicles might have been undercover? Or spies? Is there any reporting to that effect anywhere?
What I assume happened is:
1. Israeli forces near the border report suspicious activity at a location in the Gaza Strip.
2. Reconnaissance (drones or even personnel) is sent in to investigate this activity. They confirm that something is up.
3. A Battalion of the 7th Armoured Brigade under the command of a Lt. Col. is sent in. They have armored vehicles + infantry. These units surround the suspicious location, collect bodies from there and transport them back to Israel. They also coincidentally take out a Hamas cell that fired anti-tank missiles at Israeli territory.
These units are clearly not spies - but an organized Israeli formation entering the Gaza strip for military purposes. They were at the time openly part of the Israeli military - wearing a uniform on an active battlefield counts as being open, i.e. being a combatant.
@sarius I've linked to plenty of reputable sources - including the literal IDF - below...
@sarius that sounds plausible (as do a wide variety of variants on that - I wouldn't want to pretend to know details). But basically I think we have evidence to consider they were not "spies" in any usual sense of the term, were not operating armored vehicles "under cover", and were almost certainly wearing uniforms (though our evidence for that is, so far, indirect).
@EvanDaniel agreed. I don't think we will get direct third-party evidence (like a video from Hamas) - and I don't think we'll get a detailed account of this operation unless some military historian covers it down the line.
The 'source of truth' for Israeli military operations is going to be IDF statements (which may be accompanied by the occasional video). And if someone were to not accept the IDF confirming that they did x-military action, I would be veeeeeery confused.
@sarius yeah. Refusing to accept a denial would make sense. Refusing to accept it when they take responsibility seems weird to me.
“The post on X by Iran’s mission to the United Nations came after Axios reported Tehran warned Israel — in a message sent via the UN — that it would have to respond if Israel carries out a ground offensive in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.“
We have confirmation from the IDF about first boots on the ground + manned vehicles. They released this statement on the 13th of October. Also these tweets + this on telegram.
This should resolve YES based on these IDF statements!
"18:57 (Israeli time) - During the last day (I take this to mean day as in the day of the 13th), the IDF forces carried out local raids in the territory of the Gaza Strip to complete the effort to cleanse the area of terrorists and weapons. In these operations, an effort was also made to locate the missing. Infantry and armored forces searched and collected the area for findings that may help in the effort to locate the missing and thwarted Terrorist infrastructures and terrorist cells found in the area, including a cell of the terrorist organization Hamas fired anti-tank missiles at Israeli territory."
@sarius this write-up by the JPost sums it up nicely (and gives more details).
Israeli bodies were located during a raid on Gaza carried out by forces under the command of the 7th Armoured Brigade, on Friday night (13th of October). Reports were received from the forces near the border that there were "discoveries" near the border.
The discoveries underwent investigations, which led to the later decision to send in a large force under the command of Lt. Col. Shimon Putrabani. After the brigade surrounded the location, bodies were collected from there and transported to Israeli territory.
First operation inside Gaza since the start of the war
The operation was carried out jointly by infantry and armored units which took out a Hamas cell that fired anti-tank missiles at Israeli territory. This was the first operation carried out inside Gaza since the beginning of the war six days ago.
@xyz this (see above) has been reported by AP, Reuters, Sky News, CBS and Fox News as well.
Here is a quote from Trey Yingst: "But again, at this hour, Fox News can report the Israeli military entered Gaza today with infantry troops and tanks to conduct localized raids. And it appears those raids were successful. We don’t have any other information on whether or not they were able to get information or possibly even pull anyone out of Gaza."
@xyz Israel's military has moved with it’s tanks into Gaza, according to Al-Arabiya.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1712939736099123220?s=46&t=WKRyFNaUStQaXCTlWvKsEA