Which region do you predict will have the first country where one of the following occurs: debt default, civil war, annexation/union, large secession/independence movement, revolution...

In order to qualify, the original country must cease to exist, either in terms of name or foreign obligations, OR a new country must be created which de facto controls >25% of the original's population and territory and must do so for a period of >1 year OR is internationally recognized by 50 countries. I will need to verify the event occured after July 14, 2023.

For example, say two countries go to war, and one concedes territory to another. Unless either country changes their name or defaults, this event will not qualify.

Please use the following map as a reference for which countries belong to which regions. The choice of region-countries and multi-region groups was semi arbitrary, feel free to start your own market if you disapprove.