Resolution Criteria

SpaceX has confirmed a target IPO date of 2026. This market resolves based on whether an IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, and at what valuation. Resolution will be determined by the official IPO pricing as reported by major financial news outlets (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Financial Times) and SEC filings. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, the market resolves to "No IPO by June 30, 2026." If an IPO occurs after June 30, 2026, but before year-end, it resolves to the appropriate valuation bracket. If market conditions prevent an IPO from occurring by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to "No IPO by June 30, 2026."

Background

SpaceX generated an estimated $8 billion in profit on $15 billion to $16 billion of revenue in 2025. SpaceX is estimated to be doing $15 billion in annual business (mostly from Starlink), with analysts estimating revenue is growing at a 50% or greater pace and is likely to reach $22 billion to $24 billion next year. In February 2026, SpaceX formally acquired Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company xAI in an all-stock deal, with the combined private valuation reported at about $1.25 trillion. The Financial Times and other outlets have suggested that SpaceX could file for and price a listing as early as mid-June 2026 at a $1.5 trillion valuation, potentially raising up to about $50 billion.

Considerations

The timing of the IPO and the corresponding valuation is uncertain, and the company may decide not to move forward. The Financial Times previously reported that Musk is preparing the debut for mid-June to time with his birthday and a planetary alignment. The xAI merger adds complexity to the IPO structure and may affect final valuation. SpaceX profits may be diverted to fund xAI's infrastructure, while the AI company faces regulatory scrutiny in several markets, with authorities in Europe, India, Malaysia, and the US launching investigations into xAI's Grok image generator.

This description was generated by AI.