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MANIFOLD
Will Alibaba release any Qwen 4 model on October 29, 2026?
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Resolves YES if Alibaba/Qwen publicly releases any model officially named Qwen 4 (e.g. Qwen4-Max, Qwen4-Plus, Qwen4-Flash, Qwen4-27B) before 00:00 CET on October 30, 2026 (23:00 UTC Oct 29).

“Released” means anyone can actually use it, through one of these:

  • Open weights on the official Qwen Hugging Face or ModelScope page

  • Public API access on Alibaba Cloud / Qwen API

  • Availability in Qwen Chat

Resolves NO otherwise.

Doesn’t count:

  • Announcements, blog posts, benchmarks, or dates with no usable model

  • Qwen3.8-Flash-Next or “Qwen4-Exp” (the architecture preview that’s already out)

  • Leaks, unofficial uploads, or anonymous arena models

If the release time is unclear, I’ll use the earliest official timestamp (HF repo creation, official post, or API docs).

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