Fatigue is falling across the Western World. Western powers have went from saying Russia must be seen to Fail to threatening to pull the plug.

Attrition in Ukraine is a slow game. Despite a few recent gains, and a few successful attacks on Crimea, apathy is still gaining traction. Perhaps if the West really does relent, we might be looking at a once inconceivable future where Ukraine is pushed into conceding territory to Russia.

Resolution criteria:

As it stands, Ukraine believes that all of its territory, including Crimea, is Ukrainian. If as part of any future agreement, by the end of 2024, Ukraine formally agrees to give any of its current territory (including Crimea) to Russia this will resolve Yes; otherwise No.