I'm running monthly and quarterly markets and an annual market for the exchange rate between the Canadian and United States dollars.

This market is about how useful these other markets will be in predicting the exchange rate with some lead time. This market might resolve based on my subjective judgment, although I'm open to suggestions for an objective, math-based measure (I suspect this might require learning to use the Manifold API, which I may or may not be willing to do before market close). I pledge not to bet in this market as long as the resolution remains a subjective judgment. Loosely speaking, I'd consider markets useful predictors if there is not a large swing in the value of the market in approximately the second half of the market's open time, and the market has settled on the correct prediction by about mid-month.

For example, this market for March 2023 was definitely not useful in predicting the exchange rate...

...while this market for January 2023 was somewhat useful in predicting the exchange rate:

Resolution for this current market will be based on the overall performance of these markets compared to the actual exchange rate over the course of 2023. I intend to continue opening monthly and quarterly markets as the year goes on, but if something prevents that, this market will resolve based on the markets that I do open or have already opened.