Resolution criteria
The market resolves YES if Alex Honnold successfully free solos Taipei 101 live on Netflix on January 23, 2026. Resolution will be determined by the Netflix broadcast of "Skyscraper Live" and confirmed by major climbing media outlets. The climb must be completed without ropes, harnesses, or safety equipment. The market resolves NO if Honnold abandons the attempt, fails to reach the top, or if the event is cancelled.
Background
Honnold has been angling to free solo Taipei 101 for over a decade, with plans to climb it live on the National Geographic Channel in 2012, then rescheduled for 2014 before ultimately falling through. He famously made the first-ever free solo ascent of El Capitan in 2017, which was documented in the Oscar-winning film Free Solo.
Taipei 101 is a 1,667-foot, 101-story skyscraper in Taipei, Taiwan, which was officially classified as the world's tallest building from its opening on December 31, 2004, until dethroned by the Burj Khalifa in 2009, and is now the eleventh tallest in the world. When Alain Robert previously climbed Taipei 101 in 2004, he was required to use a rope as a requirement from the Taiwanese government.
Considerations
Skyscrapers are steeper and more repetitive than most natural rock faces, the movements tax the body in a different way, and Honnold has never climbed a building this big before. The hardest section will be the "bamboo boxes"—eight overhanging segments in the middle of the building, each eight floors tall (64 floors total), overhanging 10-15 degrees with a balcony every eight floors. Netflix has not confirmed whether the live free solo will go forward in the event of bad weather.
Update 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Postponed vs. Cancelled: If the event is postponed, it will still occur at a later date and the market will resolve NO (since it didn't happen on January 23, 2026). If the event is cancelled, it will not occur at all and will be announced as cancelled, also resolving NO.
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@web3nafee Could you clarify what counts as cancelled then, what if they postpone it indefinitely, or for a very long period?
I don't necessarily see the existence of the bet of being postponed being contraditory to this qualifying as cancelled (Event on Jan 23), since options are not necessarily mutually exclusive, but independent bets? I think most people reading the bet would have though that changing the date due to weather would still qualify as the event on the 23rd being cancelled due to weather.
The fact that it is postponed is in addition to having the event on the 23rd being cancelled!
@web3nafee But it says it's only about the 23rd?
The market resolves YES if Alex Honnold successfully free solos Taipei 101 live on Netflix on January 23, 2026
@AN6n0 if an event is postponed, it will still occur, just at a later date. If it is cancelled, it is cancelled, and will be announced as such.