Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if Alex Honnold successfully free solos Taipei 101 live on Netflix on January 23, 2026. Resolution will be determined by the Netflix broadcast of "Skyscraper Live" and confirmed by major climbing media outlets. The climb must be completed without ropes, harnesses, or safety equipment. The market resolves NO if Honnold abandons the attempt, fails to reach the top, or if the event is cancelled.

Background

Honnold has been angling to free solo Taipei 101 for over a decade, with plans to climb it live on the National Geographic Channel in 2012, then rescheduled for 2014 before ultimately falling through. He famously made the first-ever free solo ascent of El Capitan in 2017, which was documented in the Oscar-winning film Free Solo.

Taipei 101 is a 1,667-foot, 101-story skyscraper in Taipei, Taiwan, which was officially classified as the world's tallest building from its opening on December 31, 2004, until dethroned by the Burj Khalifa in 2009, and is now the eleventh tallest in the world. When Alain Robert previously climbed Taipei 101 in 2004, he was required to use a rope as a requirement from the Taiwanese government.

Considerations

Skyscrapers are steeper and more repetitive than most natural rock faces, the movements tax the body in a different way, and Honnold has never climbed a building this big before. The hardest section will be the "bamboo boxes"—eight overhanging segments in the middle of the building, each eight floors tall (64 floors total), overhanging 10-15 degrees with a balcony every eight floors. Netflix has not confirmed whether the live free solo will go forward in the event of bad weather.