I think there is enough people around Bill to convince him not to, assuming he doesn't become mentally incompetent. Jon knows his lane as an outsider (with millions from Apple). Jon Oliver isn't and almost certainly won't become eligible.

Betting yes because I think that the interest rate should be something like 10% APY which suggests a much higher yes price

Long term interest rate market

resolves no by 2049? or when they all die if they haven't run? Also, John Oliver is not a natural-born-citizen, so he is not eligible (unless there is a change in the Constitution)

@jorge Resolves no when they all die and haven't run. I originally put 2050 as an arbitrarily far-off date, but at the last second I changed it to an election year, which in retrospect could probably cause confusion.