Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024? | Manifold

Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024?

Science superconductivity LK-99

Basic

154

Ṁ499k

2025

5%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

See https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008.

Resolves "yes" if reproduced by independent researchers unaffiliated with the authors of this paper and published in a reputable peer-reviewed journal before the start of 2025 UTC.

The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor

For the first time in the world, we succeeded in synthesizing the room-temperature superconductor ($T_c \ge 400$ K, 127$^\circ$C) working at ambient pressure with a modified lead-apatite (LK-99) structure. The superconductivity of LK-99 is proved with the Critical temperature ($T_c$), Zero-resistivi…

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predicts YES

https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01516

It's going to replicate. I was here.

What happens to this market if a replication study is published that fails to reproduce this effect? Would we still wait until the end of 2024?

@ParthKolekar I don't see how this market could resolve early unless the original publishers admit new facts or withdraw it

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