I'll consider a market to be "predicting a pandemic" when:

1. The market is publicly tradable on Manifold

2. The market is directly about a specific pandemic being declared by the WHO (such as this one or this one)

3. The market trades consistently over 50% for at least 48 hours

A market that asks about pandemics more broadly (such as this one) will not count. The market may dip below 50% briefly, for no more than five minutes at a time.

Resolves yes when:

1. There is a market meeting the "predicting a pandemic" criteria above, AND

2. That pandemic is declared by the WHO at least 14 days after the market began trading consistently above 50%

Resolves no when:

1. There is a market meeting the "predicting a pandemic" criteria above BUT no pandemic declared within 1 year, OR

2. There is a pandemic declared by the WHO without a market meeting the criteria above

This market will stay open until either the yes or no conditions are met, extending the close date if necessary.

I'll use the definition of pandemic from Polymarket:

An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.

I'll also be stealing Conflux's standard disclaimer:

In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.