Will David still be the Manifold Community Manager in a year?
65%
chance
David joined the Manifold team today as the new community manager, so to welcome him I'm curious to see the odds of him sticking around for a year. On one hand, he seems pretty nice so far and the Manifold community is decently tame. On the other, being a community manager is notoriously stressful and Manifold is growing quickly. David may also encounter other opportunities, such as full-time streaming.
This market resolves YES if, at market close, David is still a community manager for Manifold. Otherwise, it resolves NO. I may resolve it early if David leaves in less than a year and it appears he will not return.
SirSalty is betting YES at 61% 19 days ago
@Ian ah I'm glad my proficiency at learning dominos quickly is what convinced you!
Ian bought M$10 of YES20 days ago
He nearly won a domino's game today, big strategy energy
SirSalty bought M$20 of YES21 days ago
I really hope I am! One thing that would be good to clarify is what counts as "still a community manager for Manifold". If I have another title but still take on some community manager responsibilities does it count?
Just some more info for informed predictions - I use to full time stream but am intentionally moving away from it as I want to move it to hobby status and grow into new areas. So I have no intention of looking for other opportunities, although it is worth noting I am still in a 4 week trial-period that all new members go through.
Sam bought M$50 of NO22 days ago
Congrats David! I think he'll probably be CEO by next year.
Austin bought M$10 of YES22 days ago
I actually would bet this higher if not for the fact that David might be eg "Game Designer for Manifold" instead in a year. A year's a really long time, and I see a lot of growth potential in him~