When will Manifold's '24 POTUS market get more extreme probs than 40% v 60%?
Basic
23
Ṁ2.6kresolved Jul 6
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%79%
Before Sep 16 (first debate)
3%
Sep 16 - Nov 4 (first debate to election day eve)
16%
Nov 5 - Dec 31 (election day to end of year)
1.5%
Not in 2024
0.3%
[something weird so it's none of the other answers, but N/A is cringe]
Take the probabilities for Trump and Biden in https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964. Normalize them so it's 100% after removing Other. When will one of the numbers become less than 40% (equivalently, more than 60%)? It only counts if the market remains in this state for at least 12 hours after.
Everything in Washington DC time, ranges inclusive.
Timeline taken from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election
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