When will Manifold's '24 POTUS market get more extreme probs than 40% v 60%?
23
1kṀ2605resolved Jul 6
100%79%
Before Sep 16 (first debate)
3%
Sep 16 - Nov 4 (first debate to election day eve)
16%
Nov 5 - Dec 31 (election day to end of year)
1.5%
Not in 2024
0.3%
[something weird so it's none of the other answers, but N/A is cringe]
Take the probabilities for Trump and Biden in https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964. Normalize them so it's 100% after removing Other. When will one of the numbers become less than 40% (equivalently, more than 60%)? It only counts if the market remains in this state for at least 12 hours after.
Everything in Washington DC time, ranges inclusive.
Timeline taken from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ452 | |
2 | Ṁ215 | |
3 | Ṁ105 | |
4 | Ṁ83 | |
5 | Ṁ51 |
People are also trading
Related questions
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?
30% chance
Will Manifold take down any user content due to legal threats that violate free speech principles before 2030?
34% chance
Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
18% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?
41% chance