As of the close date, which year will be the earliest one such that there is strong evidence that FTX committed fraud during that year? This doesn't have to be in some 100% technical legal sense, but it needs to be a serious thing.
Feel welcome to ask clarifying questions and improve the condition.
Feel discouraged from investing all your manibucks based on the details of the condition, because they might change in the first few weeks of this market.
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From the SEC complaint:
Negative Balance: Alameda was able to maintain a negative balance in its
customer account at FTX. Bankman-Fried directed software code to be written in
or around August 2019, and updated in or around May 2020, that ultimately
allowed Alameda to maintain a negative balance in its account, untethered from
any collateral requirements.
https://link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/29972411.230963/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuc2VjLmdvdi9saXRpZ2F0aW9uL2NvbXBsYWludHMvMjAyMi9jb21wLXByMjAyMi0yMTkucGRm/601af74e830de30c851cf71eBc56fb7d2
I also just saw the criminal indictment which also says "From at least in or about 2019": https://www.docdroid.net/kxfZltq/unsealed-indictment-in-us-v-bankman-fried-22-cr-673-abrams-as-sam-bankman-fried-of-ftx-heads-to-sdny-echoes-of-onecoin-and-un-bribery-cases-pdf
@warty But yes I agree, resolving based on the prosecutors' and regulators' allegations alone seems like it would be bad form, looking forward to seeing this market evolve over time!
Btw I wanna hedge myself by betting a bit on 2018 but idk how to create it, can someone else add it as an option?
@Ophelia I created the options originally and I can't change it now. But FTX was founded in 2019, so how could it commit fraud in 2018?
from https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-twitter-chaos-edition
> My guess is that we’ll find that they had terrible accounting practices in 2018-2019 of the sort that could be classified as criminally incompetent in a way that bled into fraud (but the trades went fine so nobody was harmed) and then they ramped it up a lot in 2022 to deal with the crypto crash. I think this market will be harder to resolve than people expect.
this seems likely based on what SBF said in the vox interview (unless he was lying hehe). I guess the resolution should be based on when they actually had less liquid assets than customer deposits since we wouldn't call it fraud if the bad accounting worked in the end. This might be hard to get strong evidence of before 2022.
