By the start of 2026, will the number of planets in the Solar System, as per the International Astronomical Union, be exactly 8?
By the start of 2026, will the number of planets in the Solar System, as per the International Astronomical Union, be exactly 8?
14
1kṀ454Dec 31
91%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I'm posting this question in case we find a new planet. (That's not a resolution criterion. If there is any other change to the number of planets, I will resolve negatively)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
Consider the mounting evidence for Planet 9: The Case Strengthens for Planet 9 | News | Astrobiology (nasa.gov)
By the start of 2026, will the number of planets in the Solar System, as per the International Astronomical Union, be exactly 8?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will planet 9 be discovered by 2026?
11% chance
Will there be ≥10k confirmed exoplanets by EoY 2025?
46% chance
Will Planet Nine be confirmed by the end of 2028?
20% chance
Will an object in the Solar System other than Earth be circumnavigated by 2075?
75% chance
Will the IAU change the definition of a planet by 2040?
55% chance
Will there be ≥15k confirmed exoplanets by EoY 2025?
30% chance
Will a new planet be discovered in our solar system by 2035?
10% chance
In which year will there be 10,000 confirmed exoplanets?
Will the hypothetical Planet 9 be discovered before 2028?
23% chance
Will the total global population exceed 8.5 billion before the end of 2031
73% chance