By EOY 2040, will I have been parent to a human child? | Manifold

By EOY 2040, will I have been parent to a human child?

2

1kṀ34

2040

52%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

I don't currently plan any children, so this is mostly a market on whether I change my mind.

Adopting a child counts. Being a biological father (or mother or whatever the hell I'll be in 2040) but not being part of the child's life doesn't count.

Feel free to ask questions to estimate my chances, and I will feel free to accept or ignore them.

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bought Ṁ20 YES

Remind me to sell YES later. I’m not sure right now a child is a good idea so I at least cushion my empathic expectations with extra YES in case it happens too fast.

@degtorad Wait, I'm not sure I see what you mean. You of all traders should know this market is crazy overpriced.

@wadimiusz Are you in a relationship?

Are you in a country in an active state of war?

Do you have you own apartment/house?

How many jobs did you change in the recent 5 years?

Yes. No. No. Four, across three different countries.

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