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MANIFOLD
Will Loyal report that LOY-002 met the STAY study's primary effectiveness endpoint by end of 2029?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ33
2029
39%
chance

Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2029, Loyal (or the FDA, via a Freedom of Information summary or an approval announcement) publicly reports that the STAY study met its pre-specified primary effectiveness endpoint for LOY-002 (for example a statistically significant improvement in lifespan or the study's primary healthspan/lifespan measure versus placebo). A report of interim safety, enrollment, or regulatory section acceptance alone does not count. Resolves NO if the study reports a failed primary endpoint, or if no primary result has been reported by the deadline. Background: STAY is Loyal's pivotal, double-blinded, placebo-controlled effectiveness study of LOY-002, a daily pill intended to extend healthy lifespan in dogs aged 10 and older weighing at least 14 lb, in 1,300 dogs at 70 US veterinary practices, with participation up to four years; enrollment completed in July 2025. Under the FDA's expanded conditional approval pathway the drug may be marketed before the pivotal study completes, so conditional approval (see the companion question) can come before this result. Companion question: Will the FDA conditionally approve a drug to extend lifespan or healthspan in dogs before January 1, 2028? Sources: https://loyal.com/stay https://loyal.com/posts/loy-002-tas https://w0lph.github.io/k9/trials/loyal-stay-loy-002.html /w0lph/will-the-fda-conditionally-approve

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Facts: 1,300 dogs at 70 practices, enrolment completed July 2025, placebo-controlled, participation up to four years. Field safety data from 400 of these dogs were already used in the safety package. The primary effectiveness result is separate from conditional approval and may come after it. https://loyal.com/stay