When will SOTA for Atari 100k pass human median and mean score on all 57 games?
Basic
5
Ṁ2582032
26%
13%
Before 2023
37%
2023-2024
15%
2024-2025
2%
2025-2026
2%
2026-2027
2%
2027-2032
2%
2032-never
Atari 100k: Atari Learning Environment with only 100k samples.
This must be a single *learning* algorithm, not a single model. Hyperparameters do not have to be shared across environments.
I will post a set of mutually exclusive answers covering possible years and select whichever turns out true. I will not select any other answers. 20XX-20YY means after the start of 20XX and before the start of 20YY.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
What will the median correct score be on Astral Codex Ten's AI Art Turing Test?
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2026?
What will the top score on the Humanity Last Benchmark be when it is released?
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #2: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2025?
65% chance
Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all Atari environments by 2025?
22% chance
When will no-calculator SOTA on the MATH dataset pass 90%?
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #5: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2028?
87% chance
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #4: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2027?
86% chance