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MANIFOLD
By what year will data center construction be largely automated?
6
Ṁ1.1kṀ629
2041
February 28, 2034
8%
Before 2028
14%
Before 2030
16%
Before 2032
45%
Before 2033
50%
Before 2034
50%
Before 2035
50%
Before 2036
50%
Before 2037
50%
Before 2038
49%
Before 2039
48%
Before 2040

This will resolve based on my subjective judgment, because I expect the underlying data to be inaccessible and because the automation could take many forms. The underlying question is: when will human labor not be a meaningful bottleneck for data center construction. Some things that would push me towards YES:

  • It is well known that the actual construction process is largely done by robots - initial build, wiring, hardware setup, etc. This doesn't need to be industry wide, any company successfully doing this counts.

  • Data center construction rate has increased significantly without a comparable increase in human employment

  • Construction companies in general only hire people to manage teams of robots, not human workers

  • Construction in other areas is largely automated, and there's no reason to believe data centers are different.

  • Humans do the actual labor, but are so closely guided by automated processes that anyone can be hired to do it.

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It's very funny for anyone to imagine that data center construction will continue unabated

@ChurlishGambit The nice thing about prediction markets is that if you are right and everyone else is wrong you get to make a lot of fake money. Buy more NO