Will drone delivery of groceries be available to the general public in San Francisco by EOY 2026?
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Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026:

  • A drone delivery service for groceries is publicly available to general consumers (not just beta testers) within San Francisco city limits

  • The service is operational and accepting orders (not just announced or in testing)

  • Customers can place orders through a public-facing app or website

Details:

  • This market resolves YES if drone delivery is available to some, but not all, addresses within San Francisco.

  • This market resolves YES if at least 20 SKUs are offered for delivery that are identical or equivalent to SKUs carried by a grocery store or convenience store.

  • This market resolves NO if the general public cannot sign up for the app, and it's not just gated on location but on invitation/waitlist.

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Title: "Groceries". Description: "20 SKUs", "some addresses".

One guy offering chewing gum to his two neighbors would make this resolve YES.

@ScottW Thanks for pointing out an ambiguity!

In that example this market would NOT resolve YES as that does not involve a public-facing app or website accessible to anyone within a geofence, does not seem to involve the use of drones, nor an offering of at least 20 SKUs.

There, I made a website from which you can order 20 SKUs of chewing gum. If anyone in SF with a drone wants to ferry gum to two neighbors, I'll forward you the order data & we can wrap this up.

My point: A distributor of one brand of chewing gum is not a grocery store. Grocery stores have "between 15,000 and 60,000 SKUs".

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