Cloned from this market: https://manifold.markets/DanielZiegler/pepfar-funding-unfrozen-by-february, but with a longer timeline.
NickLaing from EA forum claims that most countries have a 3-month stockpile of ART, and Feb 15 is a short enough timeline that it's plausible that we do resume PEPFAR soon enough, but actors cannot act fast enough.
Thus, this might be a more cruxy market.
On January 24, the State Department paused disbursements of foreign aid for a 90-day review period. So far, there are exemptions for emergency food aid but not for PEPFAR. This market resolves YES if PEPFAR funding is unfrozen as of April 15, 2025, and NO if funding is (still) frozen on that date.
https://apnews.com/article/state-department-trump-foreign-aid-bf047e17ef64cb42a1a1b7fdf05caffa
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Resolving YES, since that seems best aligned with the spirit of the market, but my defined resolution criteria were poor retrospect.
Notes for the future
- “unfrozen by Apr 15”: is kinda unhelpful, as when it comes to such things you may see injunctions that then get overturned etc. Ideally “unfrozen as of April 15” would be a better criteria
- “PEPFAR funding unfrozen”: also kinda nebulous, it looks like perhaps part of, but not all of PEPFAR funding is unfrozen rn?
@venki yeah, the whole thing is pretty confusing
data.pepfar.gov is still down and AFAIK some contractors have been laid off w/no news of a rehire
then also the thing that was issued and then waived was a "stop work notice" which is a subtly different thing from a funding freeze
@venki Resolves Yes? https://x.com/John_Hudson/status/1885784645268123742
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who initially exempted only emergency food programs and military aid to Israel and Egypt from the aid pause, agreed Tuesday to at least temporarily keep spending money on humanitarian programs that provide life-saving medicine, medical services, food, shelter and subsistence assistance, according to a copy of a signed waiver obtained by The Associated Press.