On January 24, the State Department paused disbursements of foreign aid for a 90-day review period. So far, there are exemptions for emergency food aid but not for PEPFAR. This market resolves YES if PEPFAR funding is unfrozen as of February 15, 2025, and NO if funding is (still) frozen on that date.

https://apnews.com/article/state-department-trump-foreign-aid-bf047e17ef64cb42a1a1b7fdf05caffa

• Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification of Resolution Criteria

  • 50% Funding Threshold: The market will resolve YES if at least 50% of total PEPFAR funding is unfrozen by February 15, 2025, as estimated from reliable sources.

  • Outcome: If less than 50% of the funding is unfrozen by that date, the market will resolve as NO.