I kinda have this weird prediction that we'll end up hitting 50% of the percentages we can hit (via people betting no now and stepping on each other) and it'll stabilize there. If it doesn't just stabilize at the 38% (actual 29%) we have now... This is weird.

So, if everything stops here, it's actually a 29% chance. But you probably shouldn't bet it to below 38% chance because that would move the 29 actual. I definitely wouldn't go straight to 29, because someone could bet to 30 and then 31 and .... and make money by making you incorrect, and the underlying chance would end up back at 38% again if they did that (via 29 + (38-29))

And the underlying real chance probably won't go up above the 60% because whoever was doing it didn't finish. And it's not worth it any more to go over that 60 for anyone (unless we happen to hit more chances below the 50 line)

Ok, so if the prices ever gets up slowly (one percent at a time) from where it is now up to 100%, then it should be 60% odds, right?

Hmmmm..... But if it never does that, then we have 30% odds, since we've covered 38 thru 68 (missing 49)

And if you personally do bet it up that high, then you're probably losing money, right? To buy all those yesses, at a price of 80c and 90c, for only a 60% chance of winning?

But if it never does that, you could make money by betting "no" here, down to the (current) 29% chance. Or, rather, down to at least 38% chance since that's how far we've gone so far.

If someone wants to hit all my limit orders and then buy a ton of yes, go for it before anyone else figures it out!

Just make sure to let the price sit at each percentage for a bit :P

I'm only leaving these orders up for 10 min.

So... The more percentages it swings through, the more likely yes.

So if you want to make it hit yes, you have to cover the no ranges (50 and under) early before lots of people bid. Because once there's a better than 50% chance of yes, it'll probably lock in to that above-50 range.

And if you want to make a "no" happen, you want to go ahead and force it to stick near yes early. Or, you put huge orders on the book at 49%.