Resolution criteria

The by-election will likely be held in April or May 2026. The winner will be the candidate who receives the most votes after transfers under Ireland's proportional representation single transferable vote (PR-STV) system. In a by-election, the winning candidate must reach 50% of the vote after transfers on the first count, compared to 20% needed in a four-seat general election. Resolution will be determined by official results from the Irish Electoral Commission.

Background

The by-election was triggered by Paschal Donohoe's resignation to take a position with the World Bank. In the 2024 general election, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, Social Democrats' Gary Gannon, and Fine Gael's Paschal Donohoe were elected, with Labour's Marie Sherlock winning the fourth seat. Gerry Hutch narrowly missed the final seat, losing to Sherlock by a small margin. Fianna Fáil has failed to win a seat in the constituency since 2011.

Considerations

By-elections are more challenging to win than general elections due to the higher threshold required. The path to victory is expected to come through the progressive block of Social Democrats, Labour, and the Greens. Janice Boylan is seen as most likely to represent Sinn Féin, while Ray McAdam is the continuity candidate for Fine Gael, having worked in Donohoe's Oireachtas office.