Resolution criteria

Sinn Féin will select its candidate for the Dublin Central by-election, before it is held, expected to be in April or May 2026. The market resolves YES for whichever candidate wins the party's nomination process. Resolution will be determined by official Sinn Féin announcement of their selected candidate. If neither Janice Boylan nor Séamas McGrattan is selected, the market resolves to "Other."

Background

Paschal Donohoe is giving up his Dáil seat to take up a position with the World Bank in the US, triggering this by-election. Sinn Féin will benefit from being in Opposition and the race being in leader Mary Lou McDonald's constituency, though the candidate will have to defend its working class heartlands from Independents and remains vulnerable on immigration.

Janice Boylan is Sinn Féin's North West Inner City Representative and received just 3.8% of the first preference votes in the 2024 election and was eliminated on the second count. Séamas McGrattan is a Sinn Féin councillor for Cabra-Glasnevin, representing the other half of the constituency, and has been a Sinn Féin councillor since 2008.