As the title says, resolves to what the next OpenAI model is called. Updates where only the date identifier of the model changes will not count as a new model, so "gpt-5-2025-08-07" wouldn't cause the market to resolve, but if OpenAI brands it as if it was a new model, such as GPT-5-codex for example, it will count.

Reasoning effort doesn't count as part of the model name ("GPT-5-high" = "GPT-5-medium" = "GPT-5-low" = "GPT-5").

If multiple variants of a model (like gpt-5-chat on the API) are released/announced, but OpenAI doesn't market it as a different model, only the main model will be counted as a new one. If multiple models are announced at the exact same time, they will all be resolved to YES even if they're part of the same family ("GPT-5", "GPT-5 mini", "GPT-5 nano").

In case of the resolution being controversial/ambiguous, a Manifold poll may be used to decide the resolution.

This market has the close date set to next year, but it will resolve early to when OpenAI announces their next model, and it will be extended if they don't announce any new models by then.