Will Republicans win the popular vote in the 2024 US House Elections?
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1kṀ5412resolved Jan 13
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In 2022, amid coverage of a red wave that did not come to pass, Republicans actually won the popular vote in the House Elections. Will they do so again in 2024?
Recent elections:
2022 - Republicans win 50.6% to 47.8%
2020 - Dems win 50.3% to 47.2%
2018 - Dems win 53.4% to 44.8%
2016 - Republicans win 49.1% to 48.0%
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Republicans can lose control of the House while winning the popular House vote, likely up to ~2%. There are a lot of factors into this, but if House control is basically a coin flip right now, Republicans should be more likely to win the popular vote than Democrats.
This is demonstrated by the fact that although Republicans won the popular vote in 2022 by almost 3%, their majority was among the narrowest in American history.
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