Will Republicans win the popular vote in the 2024 US House Elections?
US PoliticsPolitics2024 US ElectionUS Congressional Elections 2024
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In 2022, amid coverage of a red wave that did not come to pass, Republicans actually won the popular vote in the House Elections. Will they do so again in 2024?

Recent elections:

2022 - Republicans win 50.6% to 47.8%

2020 - Dems win 50.3% to 47.2%

2018 - Dems win 53.4% to 44.8%

2016 - Republicans win 49.1% to 48.0%

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Republicans can lose control of the House while winning the popular House vote, likely up to ~2%. There are a lot of factors into this, but if House control is basically a coin flip right now, Republicans should be more likely to win the popular vote than Democrats.

This is demonstrated by the fact that although Republicans won the popular vote in 2022 by almost 3%, their majority was among the narrowest in American history.

bought Ṁ50 YES

538 has this as basically a tie: Generic ballot : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight.

bought Ṁ20 YES from 39% to 41%
bought Ṁ10 YES

23 seats this cycle have no Democrat on the ballot versus 12 with no Republican.

bought Ṁ10 YES from 36% to 37%

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