Republicans can lose control of the House while winning the popular House vote, likely up to ~2%. There are a lot of factors into this, but if House control is basically a coin flip right now, Republicans should be more likely to win the popular vote than Democrats.

This is demonstrated by the fact that although Republicans won the popular vote in 2022 by almost 3%, their majority was among the narrowest in American history.

538 has this as basically a tie: Generic ballot : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight.

23 seats this cycle have no Democrat on the ballot versus 12 with no Republican.