Background

The Sleeping Beauty problem is attracting growing attention among physicists and philosophers. There are at least 6 Manifold markets that refer to it.

https://manifold.markets/inaccessibles/is-the-answer-to-the-sleeping-beaut-LZhpcQ8sCA

https://manifold.markets/deletesoon/whats-the-greatest-paradox-accordin

https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/what-is-the-correct-solution-to-the

https://manifold.markets/NicholasKross/poll-what-do-you-answer-in-the-slee

https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/sleeping-beauty-problem-what-do-mos-bcee317505e4

https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/is-the-answer-to-the-sleeping-beaut

Question

The answer to the problem may depend on whether classical or quantum physics is considered. Some claim that the answer is 1/3 in the quantum setting (see https://doi.org/10.1093/analys/ant072 and references therein).

Is the answer really 1/3 in the quantum physics setting?

Resolution

As I have a preferred position on this issue, I ask Manifold moderators on to resolve this question once widespread consensus is reached. If no consensus is reached before the market closing time, this should resolve to N/A.