Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2?
6
100Ṁ594
2069
83%
chance

Same resolution criteria as Martin Randall's market but with every instance of the word '1/3' replaced with the word '1/2'.

  • Update 2025-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of a word:

    • A word is defined as a group of consecutive characters surrounded by whitespace.

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"1/3" is not a word, therefore there are no words that would be changed, and this resolves the same way as Martin's original market 🤷

@evan I am a computer science person. Therefore, a word is a group of consecutive characters surrounded by whitespace.

@mods You guys can unresolve this market. I agree now that my resolution was unreasonable.

@Ziddletwix Since you made my balance negative, could you loan me please so that my balance would be positive again? 5k would be nice, and I'll pay an interest of 2% per month for one month

Sufficient evidence has been found for the resolution of this market

@inaccessibles I'd doubt that. Enough evidence would make the original market resolve. I consider this misresolved.

@inaccessibles You said "same resolution criteria as Martin Randall's market", and Martin Randall's market isn't resolved. That market's resolution criteria includes "resolves based on the consensus position of academic philosophers once a supermajority consensus is established". If you aren't going to share your "sufficient evidence" that a supermajority consensus of academic philosophers has been reached, and if many people continue to believe it has not, I agree with Primer that this is an incorrect resolution, and it's not a good look that you bet on the market more than everybody else combined before resolving in an unjustified way. I don't care if you're convinced the answer is 1/2, I knew you felt that way from your previous comments before you made this market.

@inaccessibles what evidence did you find that a supermajority consensus has been reached for 1/2?

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