How will the cosmological lithium problem be solved?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market is independent multiple choice; multiple options can resolve YES if a combination of factors is determined to solve the problem.

Background

The cosmological lithium problem is one of the most persistent discrepancies in modern physical cosmology. Standard Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN)—when combined with precise baryon density measurements from the Cosmic Microwave Background (e.g., Planck)—predicts a primordial abundance of Lithium-7 that is approximately 3 to 4 times higher than what is actually observed in the atmospheres of old, metal-poor Population II halo stars (a baseline known as the "Spite plateau").

This description was partially generated by AI.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Systematic errors in stellar abundance observations, followed by Varying fundamental constants and Stellar depletion (astrophysical solution) are most likely. See the market for live updates (8 traders, as of Aug 13, 2026).

Resolution criteria

Background

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