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MANIFOLD
How will I rate Vilenkin 1986? (+free lottery)
8
Ṁ10kṀ43
resolved Sep 19
Resolved as
59%

Resolution

This market will resolve to x%. Number x will be my personal rating of the following literature on a 0-100 scale after studying it in more detail.

Vilenkin (1986) "Boundary conditions in quantum cosmology"

Free Lottery

After the market closes, I will generate a random number M among 1 to 100 using this algorithm. The Mth unique trader of this market wins 300 mana from the lottery prize pool, if such a trader exists. Otherwise, the lottery falls through till next time.

For free play, make a trade with 1 mana and sell it. Your trade will be recorded and you will become a unique trader.

Past winners

@PaperBoy 100Ṁ

@hogshedges 100Ṁ

@Pancarre 300Ṁ

@wolf 400Ṁ

@Chumchulum 200Ṁ

@KarlWang 4000Ṁ

@WobertqUIQz 300Ṁ

@2ndPairofBoots 300Ṁ

@jbm 300Ṁ

@AritificialJudgement 300Ṁ

@Primer 300Ṁ

@Brierbr 300Ṁ

@DaleKirkwood 300Ṁ

@WobertqUIQz 300Ṁ (second time winner)

@Chimpy 300Ṁ

@Chimpy 300Ṁ (second time winner)

@dawxgBot 300Ṁ

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ0
2Ṁ0
3Ṁ0
4Ṁ0
Sort by:

Soundness: 30

Ingenuity: 65

Presentation: 70

Significance: 70

Overall (average): 59

--- RESOLUTION PROOF ---

Market        : /ttoe/how-will-i-rate-vilenkin-1986-free

Draw Source   : closeTime (1789530480000 ms)

Draw Time     : 2026-09-16 03:48:00 UTC (2026-09-15 23:48:00 EDT ET)

Target Range  : 1 to 100

NIST API Link : https://beacon.nist.gov/beacon/2.0/pulse/time/1789530480000

Pulse Index   : 1943382

Pulse Time    : 2026-09-16T03:48:00.000Z

Output Hex    : 618BB8B619919C6F10EE2CE642690C6BE76248DED457CA4C85308AB2920FA96D83732DFB4B5B99AFF201E2FDC9D33F97685A907EFEA7D112CEDE381E27AB23CE

Formula       : (Decimal_Value % 100) + 1

Decimal_Value : 5108887419674654466272258384194767007422912379277667393931455373028388673241687248292100153553045664673668680632754666214259707489566352835963663220941774

FINAL RESULT  : 75

Verify        : open the NIST API Link above,

               compute int(outputValue, 16) % 100 + 1

No 75th unique trader: only 8 unique bettor(s) on this market.